The Seahawks and Patriots played in Super Bowl LX just four months ago. Yet, neither team sits atop the 2026 Football Power Index (FPI) preseason rankings. The Rams do.

It is a striking reversal. The Seahawks rank fourth, while the Patriots have plummeted to 14th—the lowest preseason ranking for a reigning Super Bowl participant since the FPI launched in 2015. The model is signaling a shift. The era of the Seahawks' defensive dominance is facing a reality check.

The Logic of Regression

Why favor the Rams over the reigning champions? The answer lies in the inherent volatility of defense. Offenses are stable. Defenses are not.

Seattle’s Super Bowl run relied on an elite, suffocating defense. The FPI expects that unit to regress. At the end of last season, Seattle held a defensive rating of 4.6. Today, that number sits at 2.1. It remains the best in the league, but the drop reflects the model’s caution regarding year-to-year defensive consistency.

Conversely, the Rams built their foundation on offense. While they also face some regression, the dip is smaller. Their offensive rating moved from 5.3 to 3.9. They are more stable.

The Myles Garrett Effect

Los Angeles didn't just stand pat. They went hunting for stars. The acquisition of edge rusher Myles Garrett on Monday transformed the team's ceiling.

Before the trade, the Rams were already the favorites. Now, they are the clear class of the league. With a 14.9% chance to win the Lombardi Trophy, they sit four percentage points clear of the second-ranked Buffalo Bills. The team also bolstered its secondary by adding cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. They addressed their only major weakness.

It is a bold strategy. The Rams face the second-most difficult schedule in the NFL this year. The FPI suggests their roster quality is high enough to overcome it.

The AFC’s Path to the Title

If the Rams are the NFC’s inevitable force, the AFC remains a quarterback-driven gauntlet. The Buffalo Bills hold the second spot in the FPI rankings. Josh Allen remains the engine.

Then there is Baltimore. The Ravens missed the playoffs last season, yet the model remains bullish. The reason is simple: Lamar Jackson. With new head coach Jesse Minter expected to stabilize the defense, the Ravens are projected to return to the top tier of contenders.

The most likely Super Bowl matchup? Bills versus Rams. The model gives that pairing a 4.8% probability. Ravens versus Rams follows closely at 4.7%.

Key Takeaways

  • The Rams are the preseason Super Bowl favorites with a 14.9% win probability, bolstered by the acquisition of Myles Garrett.
  • Seattle’s defensive rating dropped from 4.6 to 2.1, reflecting the FPI's expectation of defensive regression for the reigning champions.
  • The Patriots enter the season ranked 14th, the lowest preseason ranking for a Super Bowl runner-up in the history of the FPI metric.

The season is months away. The projections are based on betting market win totals and schedule strength. But the math is clear. The Rams are the team to beat. Whether they can navigate the league's second-hardest schedule will define the 2026 campaign.