Seventeen hundred. That is the number of hotspots detected across Indonesia between January and June 8. It is a figure that has set off alarms in Jakarta, as the country faces a dry season that is both longer and more intense than any in recent memory.

Teuku Faisal Fathani, head of the national meteorology agency, confirmed the data on Wednesday. The trajectory is grim: the rate of hotspot accumulation in 2026 is currently outpacing the same periods in 2015 and 2019—years defined by catastrophic, large-scale forest and land fires that choked the region in thick, toxic haze.

This is not merely a seasonal fluctuation. It is a high-stakes test of Indonesia’s disaster preparedness, as the country grapples with the compounding pressures of a severe El Niño and a climate that is fundamentally shifting the rules of the dry season.

The Geography of the Alert

The meteorology agency has placed six provinces on high alert: Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, and South Kalimantan. These regions, which serve as the heart of Indonesia’s palm oil and timber production, are particularly vulnerable to the rapid spread of fire during prolonged droughts.

While the agency expects the dry season to peak in August—a timeline consistent with forecasts made back in March—the intensity of the current spell is catching authorities off guard. The drought is not limited to the peatlands of Borneo and Sumatra; most of Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara are also bracing for a more severe dry period than in previous years.

A Race Against the Calendar

The economic implications are immediate. Agriculture, the backbone of the Indonesian economy, is already feeling the strain. The government is currently racing to accelerate rice planting schedules, attempting to secure harvests before the drought reaches its most punishing stage in late summer.

If the fires take hold, the damage will extend far beyond the immediate loss of timber or palm oil crops. The 2019 fires cost Indonesia an estimated $5.2 billion in economic losses, not accounting for the long-term public health costs of respiratory illnesses caused by the haze. Preventing a repeat of that crisis is now the primary objective for regional governors and disaster management teams.

Key Takeaways

  • Unprecedented Hotspots: Indonesia has recorded 1,700 hotspots since January, with the rate of growth exceeding the levels seen during the major fire crises of 2015 and 2019.
  • High-Risk Provinces: Six provinces—Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, and South Kalimantan—are currently under official alert for forest and land fires.
  • Climate Compounding: The severity of the 2026 dry season is being exacerbated by strong El Niño conditions, forcing the government to fast-track agricultural planting to mitigate food supply risks.

The Next Critical Window

With the peak of the dry season still weeks away, the window for effective intervention is narrowing. The government’s ability to suppress these early hotspots will determine whether the country experiences a manageable season or a repeat of the environmental disasters that have defined previous drought years.

All eyes are now on the regional task forces in Kalimantan and Sumatra. By the end of July, the effectiveness of these early suppression efforts will be clear. If the current trend of hotspot growth continues through the August peak, the economic and environmental costs will be measured in billions.