Ninety-two gigawatts. That is the amount of new electricity capacity currently hanging in the balance, caught in a widening web of federal red tape that threatens to stall the U.S. energy transition at the exact moment the AI boom is demanding more power than ever.

New data from Wood Mackenzie reveals that the administration’s aggressive shift in permitting policy has already claimed 7 gigawatts of capacity on federal land in 2025 alone. The potential fallout is far larger: an additional 12 gigawatts on federal land and 80 gigawatts on private property are now at risk. This isn't just a regulatory headache; it represents $121 billion in stalled investment, according to the report.

The AI-Driven Power Crunch

For two decades, U.S. electricity demand remained largely flat. That era is over. The rapid expansion of data centers to support generative AI has fundamentally altered the math, with BloombergNEF forecasting that power consumption from these facilities will nearly triple by 2035.

While the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has attempted to streamline grid connections, those efforts have largely ignored the bottleneck at the source: the generation capacity itself. In the nation’s largest grid—which also happens to be the primary hub for data center development—operators have spent four years effectively freezing new connections. The result is a supply-demand mismatch that has tech giants increasingly looking to bypass the grid entirely by building their own on-site power plants.

The Burgum Order and the Regulatory Shift

At the center of this friction is an August 2025 order from Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. The directive, which aims to "rein in" wind and solar projects, marks a sharp departure from Burgum’s tenure as governor of North Dakota. As governor, Burgum was a vocal proponent of wind energy, overseeing a massive expansion that saw the resource provide a third of the state’s electricity by 2022.

Today, the landscape is different. The new permitting scrutiny is hitting projects in Oregon, Alabama, Maine, Minnesota, and Montana particularly hard. Solar installations near private wetlands are facing the highest level of uncertainty, a situation compounded by the administration’s recent decision to strip protections from 80 percent of U.S. wetlands. Wind farms, meanwhile, are being caught in a crossfire of new, stricter airspace regulations.

Renewables in the Crosshairs

Despite the political headwinds, renewables have been the primary engine of growth for the U.S. power sector. In 2025, solar, wind, and battery storage accounted for nearly 90 percent of the record 53 gigawatts of new capacity added to the grid. By targeting these specific technologies, the administration is effectively slowing the only sector capable of scaling quickly enough to meet the surging demand from the tech industry.

Key Takeaways

  • The Scale of Risk: 92 gigawatts of planned energy projects are now in jeopardy, representing $121 billion in capital investment.
  • The Demand Gap: As AI data centers drive electricity demand to levels not seen in 20 years, the U.S. grid is struggling to connect new supply, leading to a potential supply crisis.
  • Policy Conflict: Secretary Doug Burgum’s August 2025 order has created a regulatory bottleneck for wind and solar, directly contradicting his previous record as a pro-wind governor.

With the administration signaling no intent to soften its stance on federal land use, the next six months will be critical. Developers are currently forced to decide whether to wait out the regulatory uncertainty or abandon projects entirely. For the tech companies currently racing to build the infrastructure of the AI age, the power they need is sitting in a permit office, not on the grid.